Memory update

Judging by the lack of activity in the DRAM open-market, it appears that Q1 of 2008 will be closing on the down side. After a brief spike in chip prices before the Chinese New Year in early February, the market continues to decline, with no immediate signs of recovery. As stated in the February issue of Market Insights,  DRAM activity in March can be a good indicator of how Q2 of 2008 might shape up, but so far the first week has shown no signs of any positive activity. 512 MB chips have dropped back down into the $0.85 to $0.90 range after hitting a high of $1.15. 1 GB chips have dropped to under $2 after reaching a high of $2.20 to $2.30. 

After numerous reports of capex cutbacks, it could be months before the effects are felt throughout the supply channels. Factor in a slow economy and major concerns in the financial market, and the market lacks stimulation.

CPU update

Open-market demand for the Intel Core 2 Duo Wolfdale series continues to be very strong, as the chipmaker still has not been able to support the forecasts of PC manufacturers. Unfortunately, it appears that the lack of support is universal, as reasonably priced open-market inventory of these CPUs is difficult to procure. The 2.66 GHz E8200, at the bottom of the stack, is the tightest, with open-market trading taking place well above the $159 published direct price. Additionally, the 3 GB E8400 is trading at more than $200, with a $179 published direct price.

A recent spike in trailing-edge 925 chips has caused market pricing to rise to a record-high close of $90. Unlike the Wolfdale, the 925s still has supply in the open-market, allowing Converge to offer these parts close to last-time-direct prices. In contrast, a surprise price drop on 950s made way for substantial savings for anyone still building with the 945s series of CPUs. Overnight, the part went from trading briskly at $155 to roughly $140. Many suppliers are holding more expensive product; however, there are plenty low-cost CPUs available at the discounted rate.
 
Notebook builders continue to increase activity in the open-market and welcome even slight cost-saving opportunities. The T8300 market has been at a little more than $200, while most buyers are accustomed to paying direct pricing closer to $240. Although we have filled many orders for the T2600 this month below direct pricing, we expect to see that market correct itself in the next week as overall supplies tighten.

General IC update

Overall, the general IC market has been in a relatively static holding pattern for the past several months. We are currently tracking parts that might experience shortages and delays in the following areas:

-Devices that are currently experiencing the longest lead times include military diodes, TI op amps and Freescale processors, which show no signs of improving for quite some time.
-Pressure on high-CV capacitors has become a game of cat and mouse, with random spot shortages popping up every three to four weeks. These shortages are inconsistent and appear to be on different flavors of capacitors with no consistent trend.
-Supply pressures have been relieved on the Cypress microcontrollers and clock drivers we were tracking in late January, as well spot shortages experienced on Maxim and Fairchild devices.
-We are still tracking some spot shortages on Broadcom chips.
-In late January, Lattice raised prices on some of its more common products by 15 to 20%.
Our military parts division has been tracking a significant increase on requirements for some build-to-order connectivity devices.

Storage update

Desktop drives
Manufacturers have reduced pricing on the 750 GB capacity to the low $100 range. These price reductions will undoubtedly have an impact on open-market pricing and the liquidity of the lower capacity drives, the greatest of which will be seen on the 400 GB and 500 GB HDDs. There remains strong demand for refurbished HDDs in the 40 GB through 250 GB capacities, while pricing has remained stable month over month.
 
Notebook drives
The mainstream production drives are 80 GB, 120 GB and 160 GB 5400 RPM SATA HDDs. Open-market pricing has remained stable for the 80 GB and 120 GB, while pricing for the 160 GB has dipped. We are beginning to see demand for the 200 GB 2.5-inch SATA HDD, while the PATA interface remains liquid in 20 GB through 80 GB in both the 4200 and 5400 speeds. Consumption for these hard drives is primarily in the service and white box spaces.

Server drives
In the server market, Seagate Fibre Channel drives are in high demand, with limited supply. This is specific to the 300 GB, 400 GB, and 500 GB capacities from this manufacturer only. Fibre Channel HDDs in other capacities or from other manufacturers remain slow moving. One notable drive in service demand is the ST373207LC. Overall, Seagate continues to be the preferred brand in this space. However, with the adoption of SATA HDDs for enterprise use, alternative brands are being utilized.

By: DocMemory
Copyright © 2023 CST, Inc. All Rights Reserved