DRAM spot prices are low and expected to decline further in August due to an overabundance of inventory, but a sudden surge in 64-bit Windows deployment could reverse the trend. At the moment, DDR2 1GB modules are between $20-22, but prices have been low for months. This may, in part, have been driven by the low NAND prices we observed earlier this year. At that time, several memory manufacturers were pushing into DRAM to get out of NAND flash; this action may dropped prices here, as well.

As DigiTimes reports, system OEMs and manufacturers already expanded DRAM inventory once this year,with some carrying as much as two months worth of stock. Problem is, demand for systems has been flat, and isn't depleting these stocks quickly enough. OEMs aren't expected to restock significantly, even with back-to-school right around the corner, and they still may be stuck carrying higher-than-normal inventory loads much longer than they planned.

This situation may be why the number of 64-bit Vista systems is on the rise. Dell or HP will happily sell a 32-bit system with 4GB of RAM, but they're forced to include a statement that the amount of RAM the system can address is actually less than 4GB. Pumping up the amount of memory in a system is one way to increase a manufacturer's margins, and there's no doubt that OEMs prefer selling systems with more memory in them.

The best way to solve an inventory build-up is to ship more product, and in this case, the best way to ship more product is to ship 64-bit Vista and lots of RAM. If the two are indeed linked, we should see an increasing shift to 64-bit Vista over the next few months, as manufacturers move inventory out before the end of the year.

By: DocMemory
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