The researchers blame a slowdown in technology node migrations at the major DRAM producers for the dramatic capex declines predicted, as companies struggle to combat increasing losses and preserve cash.

Capital expenditure is expected to be $7.1 billion this year, down from the estimated $13.4 billion in 2008, and a far cry from the $21.4 billion DRAM makers spent in 2007, which was a 30 percent increase on that achieved in 2006.

DRAMeXchange notes that Taiwanese DRAM suppliers such as Powerchip Semiconductor (PSC) and its JV, Rexchip are expected to delay the move to a 50-nm process and only use a 65-nm process at its current fabs. Elpida is also expected to maintain DDR2 production at the 70-nm and 65-nm nodes, while only migrating DDR3 to its 50-nm process technology.

Even market leader Samsung is expected to lower spending in 2009, a move that will influence the pace of its node migration from 68-nm to 56-nm technology, according to DRAMeXchange.

And the researchers note that even though Nanya and Inotera are expected to switch to Micron's stack technology, they may adopt a less aggressive migration, employing a 68-nm node before migrating to the more advanced 50-nm node, which could require the use of immersion lithography, something Micron has already transitioned to with its most advanced process node in current production.

By: DocMemory
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