Tuesday, March 24, 2009
A sustained recovery for semiconductor vendors and manufacturers supplying the PC market is not expected before world economic growth returns, according to an analyst from Gartner Inc. That is not going to be before the third quarter of 2010 and until then there is a risk of over-optimism, Gartner said.
On the positive side Gartner analysts believe that the PC supply chain will have "bottomed out" in the first quarter of 2009. However, it is likely to drag along at a low level for several quarters and a sustainable recovery will not happen until Q3 2010, he market research firm said.
Countercyclical intervention by the Chinese government is helping to prop up demand in the short term and the low levels of inventory in the supply chain are creating sudden surges of demand.
"We caution against interpreting such surges as signs of recovery, as full recovery is unlikely until demand in mature markets picks up," said Gartner in a note.
Gartner also warned that consumer confidence is likely to remain low and give rise to a depressing holiday season in 2009 where few electronic products are bought and companies foreseeing this are likely to reduce orders and inventory in the second-half of 2009.
"Sustained stabilization of lead times and pricing is not expected until the seasonally strong third quarter, when PC vendors start placing orders for the back-to-school and holiday seasons. However, if PC vendors over-estimate demand in mature markets, there is the risk of another disastrous fourth quarter. PC manufacturers and their suppliers should review ways to minimize lead times and inventory levels to allow finer tracking of market demand during this high-risk period."
By: DocMemory
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