"While semiconductor  industry recession shows some similarities to the one that occurred in 2001, when semiconductor sales plummeted by 32.5% and took nearly three years to return to 2000 levels, Databeans believes this crisis will be far shorter lived," Databeans said in a statement. "The primary difference is that the unprecedented growth that occurred between 1999 and 2000 caused such overcompensation in production that the following recovery followed a 'bathtub effect' or a rather long and flat stabilization to return to previous profits."

Databeans reported that the current crisis has been caused primarily by temporary macroeconomic issues that have impacted consumer spending on devices that use ICs and will recuperate at a much faster rate than the 2001 fall did. Indeed, the company estimated that after a 17% semiconductor industry sales decline in 2009, a ¡°v-shaped¡± or ¡°boomerang¡± recovery will come to the industry in 2010, with a total year-over-year increase of 17% expected next year.

Databeans further predicted that by 2011, total IC sales will regain momentum and surpass the peak seen during 2007, with $269.1 billion in revenue. "We believe that the market reacted swiftly to the financial meltdown and that with little inventory in the channel now, production will begin to flow again and not remain stagnant as it did in 2002," Databeans said. "This improved situation isn¡¯t likely to happen all at once, but certain indicators show that recovery may be sooner than expected

By: DocMemory
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