Tuesday, May 5, 2009
DRAM prices will be driven up mainly by demand from the China market throughout the third quarter of 2009, with quotes for 1Gb DDR2 to rise from US$1 at present, to US$1.50 or higher, according to Scott Chen, vice president for APAC business at Kingston Technology. Chen said there is little chance that the price of mainstream DDR2 chips will fall to below US$1 in the quarter.
The average contract price of 1Gb DDR2 chips began to rally to US$0.94 in the second half of April, compared to the average of US$0.88 that had been maintained from the second half of February, according to data gathered by DRAMeXchange.
Chen said that sales contributions from the Asia region have surpassed those from Europe to become the company's major market starting early this year. Growing demand from the China market contributed to a recent rally in DRAM and NAND flash prices, while end-market demand in Europe and the US is still weak, Chen indicated.
However, Chen said that players need to look beyond the uptick in demand from China and should adopt a cautious approach to demand pickup on a worldwide basis.
Though the price of 1Gb DDR2 chips is close to US$1, upstream suppliers estimate that Samsung Electronics is still suffering losses, said Chen. Unlike Samsung, which is capable of offsetting chip losses with its other profitable product lines, other DRAM chipmakers will continue to be hit hard by ongoing losses.
Chen commented that, in addition to reported large orders from Apple, NAND flash demand for 3G handsets in China appears to have contributed to a continued rise in NAND contract prices. Prices are expected to remain healthy throughout the third quarter, Chen forecast.
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