DRAM prices stand a good chance of returning to cost levels in the third quarter of 2009, but they may not stay there for too long before falling again, according to Simon Chen, chairman of A-Data Technology.

Upstream DRAM suppliers still have difficulties in making profits for full-year 2009, said Chen, who has cautiously predicted that the industry may not see a true recovery until 2010. The contract pricing trend for June will be a key indicator of the market condition in the second half of this year, he said.

DRAM module makers should manage to maintain their revenue growth and profitability in the second half of the year as long as inventories are closely monitored and controlled, according to Chen.

Chen also remarked that a successful ramp of 3-bit per cell chips would boost NAND flash supply, but he does not expect the scenario to take place this year. Samsung Electronics now has limited room to increase its NAND flash output, whereas Toshiba's plan to expand its capacity depends on its pending migration to 3-bit per cell multilevel cells (MLC) flash technology, he said.

Commenting on China's white-box market, Chen said that there are at least 500 white-box handset and PC manufacturers in China, but most of them will bow out in the next couple of years.

A-Data began offering memory and SSD products for white-box handset and netbook applications earlier this year. Chen noted that A-Data will only selects larger customers and closely monitor payments.

Chen made the remarks at the ongoing Computex Taipei 2009 trade show. A-Data is exhibiting a host of memory products, including overclocked DDR3 modules and SSDs.

By: DocMemory
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