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Rising NAND flash prices may hurt SSD sales


Thursday, July 9, 2009 NAND flash prices continue to rise. And the surge in prices for NAND-flash memory has diminished the market for solid-state drive (SSD) storage technology for notebook PCs in 2009, according to iSuppli Corp.

NAND flash suppliers have recently cut capacity to reflect weak market demand, causing flash prices to rise.

Average pricing for 16-Gbit density multi-level cell (MLC) NAND flash rose to $4.10 in the second quarter of 2009, up from $1.80 in the fourth quarter of 2008, according to the research firm.

"The recent increase in NAND flash pricing has benefitted memory chip makers, but also has served as a major damper on the market for SSDs used in notebooks," said Michael Yang, senior analyst for mobile and emerging memories at iSuppli, in a statement. "About 90 percent of an SSD's value consists of NAND flash memory, so with the pricing for such chips rising, consumer and corporate adoption of solid-state storage has been slowed."

SSDs can serve as replacements for Hard Disk Drives (HDDs) in personal computers, storing data by using flash memory rather than traditional rotating media.

Another firm, Web-Feet Research Inc., painted a mixed picture about flash. The overall flash market produced $20.4 billion in sales in in 2008, but the recession has hit the flash market hard in 2009, whereby the flash vendors reduced production capacity by 18.5 percent in 1Q 2009, according to Web-Feet.

Last quarter's flash memory component forecast projected 2009 revenues to be $17.5 billion for both NAND and NOR, according to the firm. Based on the 1Q flash shipments, the revenue decline was not as drastic since the NAND ASPs increased substantially.

Consequently, the revised 2009 flash revenues are estimated to be $18.4 billion, according to the firm. ''Looking forward the flash market should gradually recover as consumer demand returns and flash computing develops in SSDs,'' according to the firm.

By: DocMemory
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