Gartner Inc has once again bettered its expectations for 2009, now calling for a worldwide semiconductor revenue decline of 17.1% year over year. The estimated decline is down significantly from Gartner's February forecast calling for an up to 24.1% year over year drop and is also down from the company's May projection calling for a 22.4% year over year drop.

With the 17.1% decline expected, worldwide semiconductor revenue is on track to total $212 billion in 2009, compared to 2008 revenue of $255 billion, according to Gartner.

¡°The semiconductor market has performed better than expected, as was evident when second quarter semiconductor revenue increased 17% in sequential sales,¡± said Bryan Lewis, research VP at Gartner, in a statement this morning. ¡°Consumers reacted strongly to reduced PC and LCD TV pricing as price elasticity was amazing. The industry also benefited from the China stimulus package that worked remarkably well to boost short-term demand. Governments worldwide took action quickly and extensively to avoid a meltdown, and it worked.¡±

Gartner noted that some of the leading semiconductor vendors reported positive Q2 sequential revenue growth and said that bodes well for the PC and cell phone segments. The research company specifically pointed out Intel, which posted 12% sequential revenue growth, and Samsung, the No. 2 semiconductor vendor based on 2008 revenue, which posted a 30% increase sequentially in chip sales driven by firming memory prices, exchange rates, and a rebound in PC production. Qualcomm, the No. 8 ranked semiconductor vendor last year, reported that its cell phone chip sales increased 35.7% sequentially in Q2, Gartner also reminded.

However, the brighter forecast from Gartner did not come without a word of caution. The company reported that while the outlook for 2009 has improved, all major segments of the semiconductor market are expected to experience double-digital declines in revenue this year. The largest segment of the semiconductor market, ASSPs (application-specific standard products), will reach $57.2 billion in 2009, a 16.5% decline from 2008 revenue, according to Gartner's estimates. The memory market, the No. 2 segment, is forecast to total $41 billion, a 13.5% decline from last year. And the microcomponents segment (microprocessors, micro controller units, DSPs) is on pace to reach $39.4 billion in 2009, a 19.2% decline from 2008.

Looking to 2010, Gartner's outlook called for worldwide semiconductor revenue to total $233 billion, a 10.3% increase from 2009 projections.

¡°The fourth quarter of 2009 and first quarter 2010 will be extremely important in shaping the annual growth for 2010,¡± Lewis said. ¡°We are currently expecting the fourth quarter of 2009 to be slightly positive, in line with typical seasonal patterns, but foundries have reported they are concerned that demand may drop off more than seasonal in the fourth quarter, and it may carry into first quarter 2010. Gartner's most likely scenario is calling for a negative 5% growth in the first quarter of 2010 as customers take a pause and absorb all the devices they purchased over the previous three quarters.¡±

By: DocMemory
Copyright © 2023 CST, Inc. All Rights Reserved