2009 will hardly go down in the history books as a banner year for sales, but it may not end in as badly as originally projected.

Both the SIA (Semiconductor industry Association) and Future Horizons this week revised their outlooks for the year, as well as 2010, calling for lower 2009 semiconductor sales declines and growth next year.

For its part, the SIA today released its annual forecast of global semiconductor sales projecting worldwide sales of $219.7 billion for 2009, a decline of 11.6% from the $248.6 billion reported in 2008. The industry group's earlier forecast made in June called for a more than 21% 2009 sales decline on 2008 numbers.

The SIA forecast further projects that sales will grow by 10.2% to $242.1 billion in 2010 and by 8.4% to $262.3 billion in 2011.

“The new forecast is brighter than our earlier projections, reflecting an improving global economy,” said SIA President George Scalise in a statement this morning. “Unit sales of key demand drivers – including PCs and cell phones, which together account for about 60% of semiconductor demand – have been stronger than previously predicted. We remain cautiously optimistic for the longer term."

The revised forecast follows on a report made by the SIA earlier this week stating that Q3 sales were up nearly 20% on Q2,  capped off by September sales that exhibited the seventh straight month-over-month increase this year. The SIA noted that its current forecast is closely tied to projections of continuing improvement in the worldwide economy.

Meanwhile, Future Horizons this week stated that real demand is starting to pick up. The research company said it expects to up its Q4 estimates in coming weeks based on the demand and solid Q3 performance that outperformed expectations. Indeed, Future Horizons loosely said it believes Q4 could grow 5 to 6%, rather than its current 3% estimate.

"That would put 2009’s market at $220 billion, down just 10% versus our current -14% forecast," Malcolm Penn, chairman and CEO of the company, said in a statement. "Even a modest quarterly growth patter on this yields a minimum 20% growth for 2010, to around $275 billion … sizeably more than its 2007 peak."

Penn, who has actively stated in the past 12 months that the 2009 semiconductor industry situation differs significantly from the "perfect storm" situation that seriously hindered 2001, summed up the semiconductor industry outlook by saying: "Just as the perfect storm killed 2001, the perfect calm will drive the 2009-2010 recovery. Time to re-write the 2010 business plans now."

By: DocMemory
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