Thursday, September 16, 2010
Worldwide semiconductor capital equipment spending is projected to more than double year over year in 2010 and approach $36.9 billion on 2009's $16.6 billion, according to a report issued this week by Gartner Inc.
2010's estimated 122.1% increase in semiconductor capital equipment spending will be followed by a much smaller 4.9% increase in spending in 2011, the Gartner data projected.
"The strong semiconductor growth in 2010 has driven semiconductor capital growth to all-time highs," said Klaus Rinnen, managing vice president at Gartner, in a statement. "Capital expenditure (capex) is above 95% due to strong spending by the foundry and logic segments, along with a technology upgrade for the memory manufacturers. In 2011, capex growth is expected to slow to 10%, because a slowing economy will negatively impact electronic and semiconductor sales."
Rinnen warned that, even with the expected continuing growth, companies need to ready for darker days.
"Companies should prepare their manufacturing plan for a softer 2011, when equipment purchases will focus more on capacity than technology equipment," he said. "Companies should also prepare business plans for the next equipment down cycle, starting in late 2012, because memory companies will have overinvested, thus generating excess equipment."
Looking specifically at the wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) segment of the market, Gartner projected a 119.9% increase in 2010, followed by 3.9% growth in 2011. Overall utilization rates peaked at 94% in Q2, the company said, but will quickly drop back to the 90% range as more capacity comes online, and semiconductor production slows and becomes more aligned with end-user demand.
Gartner estimated that the packaging and assembly equipment (PAE) segment will increase more than 123% in 2010. The PAE market is expected to continue to grow through 2012, though at a modest single-digit rate. Gartner said a decline expected for 2013 is based on a more-traditional oversupply condition, particularly in the memory sector of the device market, and it also reflects a substantial slowdown in the copper bonding build-out.
The automated test equipment (ATE) market is expected to grow 144% in 2010, the research company reported. Although solid growth occurred through the first half of the year, the segment is expected to realize seasonal declines late this year and in early 2011. Gartner's explained that its 2010 and 2011 growth expectations are driven heavily by the transition to DDR3 memory test processes and noted that all ATE segments will realize revenue growth of more than 110%.
"2010 will likely be the strongest year ever for the semiconductor equipment industry, which will be a nice rebound from the worst year ever," Rinnen said. "Growth will continue through 2012 as companies move from technology buys to capacity purchases."
Worldwide semiconductor capital equipment spending forecast, 2009 to 2014 (millions of dollars)
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
2014
|
Semiconductor
Capital spending
|
25,876.3
|
50,686.6
|
55,812
|
59,934
|
54,972.9
|
54,909.7
|
Growth (%)
|
-41.2
|
95.9
|
10.1
|
7.4
|
-8.3
|
-0.1
|
Capital equipment,
includes test
|
16,606.1
|
36,887.6
|
38,697.9
|
43,266.5
|
36,573.8
|
36,467.6
|
Growth (%)
|
-45.8
|
122.1
|
4.9
|
11.8
|
-15.5
|
-0.3
|
WFE
|
12,747.7
|
28,032.1
|
29,116.3
|
33,227.3
|
29,131.5
|
28,564.1
|
Growth (%)
|
-47.4
|
119.9
|
3.9
|
14.1
|
-12.3
|
-1.9
|
PAE
|
2,708.5
|
6,049.6
|
6,424.1
|
6,647.4
|
4,847.0
|
5,082.5
|
Growth (%)
|
-32.3
|
123.4
|
6.2
|
3.5
|
-27.1
|
4.9
|
ATE
|
1,149.8
|
2,805.8
|
3,157.6
|
3,391.9
|
2,595.3
|
2,821.1
|
Growth (%)
|
-53.0
|
144
|
12.5
|
7.4
|
-23.5
|
8.7
|
Other spending
|
9,270.2
|
13,799.1
|
17,114.1
|
16,667.5
|
18,399
|
18,442.1
|
Growth (%)
|
-30.7
|
48.9
|
24
|
-2.6
|
10.4
|
0.2
| Source: Gartner, September 2010
By: DocMemory
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