Research in Motion is scheduled to release earnings Thursday and the report is expected to be decent. But the cautious commentary on the shares continues.The latest comes from Bernstein Research analyst Pierre Ferragu:

Although we maintain our bearish view on the name, we expect 3Q11 in the high end of guidance. We believe the company delivered well on the quarter as the Torch continued its ramp-up. Although it is too early to see signs of traction with consumers, the Torch attracted Blackberry core users and should have had a positive impact on high-end replacement. We wouldnft buy into the numbers, though. The stock has performed very strongly in the last 3 months and we expect to see, despite good overall numbers, further signs of weakness on important fundamentals.

But what about all the arguments in RIMfs favor? Their exposure to international markets and those looking for lower-priced handsets. gIf growth in international markets and low [average selling price] segments has been a strong support to the business in the last 3 quarters, it is fading away,h wrote Ferragu.

Ok, fine. But what about the would-be Apple killer that is RIMfs PlayBook? Or the QNX operating system some have expressed optimism about. Ferragu writes:

We believe the iPadfs growth margin to be in the region of 30%, with unarguably a much stronger brand premium than Blackberry and probably a much better cost base (lower Qualcom IP rights, better sourcing capabilities, especially for NAND memory). In that context, RIM couldnft be competitive on that market with more than 10-15% gross margin. If RIMfs plan to make reasonable profits is to sell a 5Œ tablet for the price of a 7Œ tabletc it doesnft sound like a sustainable competitive advantage. QNX isnft likely to change RIMfs fate in the medium term. If the platform could potentially enhance Blackberry products, we believe it would take time before it changes the current well documented lack of excitement of established Blackberry users.

Despite all the recent gloominess being expressed by analysts about Research in Motion, the shares seem to be hanging in there. Theyfre still above the 200-day simple moving average, a key gauge of momentum. Since the end of September Research in Motion is up 28.5%.  Year-to-date, however, theyfre down about 8%.

By: DocMemory
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