The worldwide mobile phone market is forecast to grow 1.4% on year in 2012, the lowest annual growth rate in three years despite a projected record number of smartphone shipments in the high-volume holiday season, according to IDC.

Vendors will ship more than 1.7 billion mobile phones in 2012. In 2016, IDC forecasts 2.2 billion mobile phones will be shipped to the channel.

Global smartphone volume in the fourth quarter of 2012 is expected to reach 224.5 million units, representing 39.5% on year growth due primarily to strong consumer demand. For the year, smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 45.1% on year to 717.5 million units, IDC estimated.

IDC forecasts Android to be the clear leader in the smartphone mobile operating system race, thanks in large part to a broad selection of devices from a wide range of partners. Samsung is the leading Android smartphone seller though resurgent smartphone vendors LG Electronics and Sony, both of which cracked the top-five smartphone vendors during the third quarter of 2012, are not to be overlooked. IDC believes the net result of this will be continued double-digit growth throughout the forecast period.

iOS will maintain its position as the clear number two platform behind Android at the end of 2012 and throughout the forecast. The popularity of the iPhone across multiple markets will drive steady replacements and additional carrier partners will help Apple grow iOS volume.

The BlackBerry OS will grow slowly but largely maintain share over the coming years following the BlackBerry 10 launch next year, IDC added. Windows Phone will battle with BlackBerry for the number three spot in 2013, but will gain further clarity in the years that follow.

Windows Phone will build on the progress it made in 2012, with Nokia establishing its presence and HTC solidly jumping back into the race. Moreover, contributions by Samsung, ZTE, and Huawei will help grow its footprint.

Linux will trail the market leaders throughout our forecast though it is expected to be the dark horse of the forecast. K-Touch has quietly built its Linux volumes this year while Haier recently released its first Linux smartphones. In addition, multiple platforms are expected to announce and launch their Linux-based smartphones in 2013, including Samsung's Tizen and Jolla's SailFish, IDC noted.

By: DocMemory
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