Prices of PC DRAM chips are expected to fall by 5 percent next quarter ¡ª slower than this quarter¡¯s 10 percent decline ¡ª supported by recovering PC demand, market researcher TrendForce Corp (¼¯°î¿Æ¼¼) said yesterday.

The Taipei-based researcher¡¯s forecast contrasts with that of DRAM module supplier Kingston Technology Co, which said this week that PC DRAM prices might tumble another 10 percent next quarter from this quarter.

Kingston on Thursday said that demand for laptops equipped with Intel Corp¡¯s new Skylake processor and Microsoft¡¯s new Windows 10 system would only rise gradually, tempering market expectations of a fast recovery.

The firm¡¯s pessimistic outlook drove down shares of the nation¡¯s major DRAM chipmaker Nanya Technology Corp (Äρ†¿Æ¼¼) and Inotera Memories Inc (ÈA†¿Æ¼¼) by 1.99 percent and 2.62 percent respectively. For this week, their shares also fell by 4.48 percent and 12.85 percent from last week respectively.

¡°We believe that seasonal demand in the third quarter will still lead to an uptick, which will help ease the severe oversupply of the first half,¡± TrendForce analyst Avril Wu (…ÇÑÅæÃ) said. ¡°The recovery would give some support to PC DRAM prices in the third quarter.¡±

In addition, supply of PC DRAM chips would drop as memory chipmakers allocate more capacity for mobile DRAM chips amid recovering demand for smartphones in emerging markets and the launch of Apple Inc¡¯s new iPhone, Wu said.

The next-generation iPhone is expected to be equipped with an advanced low-power DDR4 memory chip ¡ª with 2 gigabytes of memory storage ¡ª double that of previous models, according to TrendForce.

Compared with the lukewarm PC DRAM chip business, mobile DRAM chips are set to be the real source of revenue for chipmakers, given stable prices and growing demand from clients, Wu said.

Robust demand for mobile DRAM chips is set to boost overall DRAM chip prices slightly to US$1.47 per unit next quarter from an estimate of US$1.4 this quarter, as supply would largely be in line with demand, TrendForce forecast.

However, both Nanya and Inotera would not benefit from the growth of mobile DRAM chips, as they mostly make DRAM chips used in PCs and servers, Wu said.

Low-power DRAM chips ¡ª including mobile DRAM chips ¡ª contributed 13 percent of Nanya¡¯s revenue of NT$12.03 billion (US$ 387,700 million) last quarter, while PC DRAM chips accounted for 23.3 percent. Nanya supplies low-end mobile DRAM chips to Chinese handset makers via Kingston, she said.

Commenting on the rise of China¡¯s chipmakers, Wu said she did not expect Chinese rivals to threaten Nanya and Inotera in the near future, due to high technological barriers.

In addition, their migration to 20-nanometer technology would greatly reduce the two companies¡¯ manufacturing costs, Wu said.

By: DocMemory
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