Apple said it set a sales record for an iPhone launch in its debut weekend, but these numbers included China sales, something last year’s debut-weekend sales — a record at the time — did not.

Apple Inc. AAPL, -3.01% said Monday it has sold more than 13 million units three days after the launch of the iPhone 6s and iPhone 6s Plus. FBR & Co. and Piper Jaffray analysts say this momentum should lead to improving sales, but Mizuho Securities analysts were cautious about comparing the record-breaking sales given that the data this time included sales from the world’s second-largest economy.

The sales numbers were ahead of FBR & Co analyst expectations, at 12 million units sold, and at the high end of Piper Jaffray expectations at 12 million to 13 million units. Many analysts have said the sales in fiscal year 2016 can’t live up to last year’s quarter.

Sales of the new phones in the U.S. and elsewhere began Friday. Apple said sales completed by Saturday will be included in its fiscal fourth-quarter results, while sales completed on Sunday will be part of fiscal first-quarter results

While some on Wall Street may have viewed the newest iPhone iteration as a sleeper product compared with other Apple product launches, Daniel Ives, an analyst with FBR & Co., said the numbers should prove them wrong. The strong sales also should assuage concerns about the negative effect of the slowing Chinese economy on Apple.

“We believe the seeds are planted for Apple to catalyze growth on the heels of this super-cycle product upgrade for the coming quarters and, thus, help reverse the negative investor tide (e.g., China) on this “prove me” name,” Ives wrote.

Ives maintained an outperform rating.

But both Ives and Abhey Lamba of Mizuho Securities noted the numbers can’t be directly compared with last year because of the different markets involved.

“While the unit volume is clearly impressive in absolute terms, we note that this comes from greater initial distribution versus last year,” wrote Lamba, whose neutral rating and $125 price target remained unchanged.

This year’s launch included 12 markets, notably including China, while last year’s included 10, Lamba said.

Apple didn’t break out its China sales.

Last year, Apple sold 10 million units of the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus in its opening weekend. The phone launched in China on Oct. 17, about a month after the release on the phones in the U.S. and other countries.

The latest product launch could help shipment growth in the December quarter, Mizuho analysts said. But Apple could be hurt in March, when shipments are compared with last year’s solid March quarter.

Ives estimated China sales at 2 million to 2.5 million units. That means the numbers excluding China were up about 5% to 10%, marking “a Lebron-like performance.” Piper Jaffray analysts estimated that sales excluding China were up 10% from the debut weekend year ago.

If the momentum continues, Piper Jaffray analysts said they expect about a 3% growth to iPhone units in the next year. The analysts maintained an overweight rating and $172 price target.

The iPhone 6s and iPhone 6s Plus will be available in 40 more countries beginning Oct. 9 and in more than 130 by the end of 2015.

Apple shares gained 0.2% before the market opened Monday, but were down 1.4% later in the day as losses for the broader market accelerated. Shares have gained 3.9% this year through Friday, compared with the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.30% loss of 8.5%.

By: DocMemory
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