The global memory chip market, which enjoys the biggest ever boom, is expected to surpass US$100 billion (112.7 trillion won). The figure is up as much as US$25 billion (28.18 trillion won) from US$78.6 billion (88.58 trillion won) last year which was an all-time high. Accordingly, market leaders Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are expected to post the largest ever earnings.

During a forum called “Media Briefing about Memory Semiconductor Market” held at the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry building in Jung-gu, Seoul, on April 5, Walter Coon, director of NAND flash market research at the industry tracker IHS Markit, said, “The demands of DRAM and NAND flash chips are continuously increasing this year again. Accordingly, the combined sales of the two industries this year will exceed US$100 billion (112.7 trillion won). Mike Howard, senior director at the IHS Markit, said, “As the demand for mobile devices and servers is growing and Samsung Electronics, SKY Hynix and Micron are supplying the chips, the market will show a steady growth by at least 2018.”

The IHS Markit predicted that the boom in the memory semiconductor market will reach a peak next year. It stands in contrast to some investment banks, including UBS, which expected that the boom will hit the peak this year. According to the IHS Markit, the sales of the DRAM and NAND flash industries will stand at US$103.8 billion (117 trillion won) this year and US$107 billion (120.61 trillion won) next year. During the same period, the DRAM market will grow from US$41.5 billion (46.78 trillion won) in 2016 to US$55.3 billion (62.35 trillion won) this year and to US$57.8 billion (65.16 trillion won) in 2018. The NAND flash market is also expected to expand 30 percent from US$37.1 billion (41.83 trillion won) last year to US$48.5 billion (54.68 trillion won) this year and then to US$49.2 billion (55.45 trillion won) next year. However, the market landscapes will change as Chinese chip makers will increase their supplies in 2019, said the IHS Markit. The market researcher predicted that the DRAM market will decrease to US$53.4 billion (60.17 trillion won) in 2019 and record at US$53.8 billion (60.61 trillion won) in 2020 and US$53.7 billion (60.5 trillion won) in 2021. It also said that the NAND flash market will shrink to US$46.3 billion (52.18 trillion won) in 2019. Coon said, “The market situation can change depending on how aggressively China’s YMTC, which has emerged as 3D NAND flash chip producer, conducts its business.”

According to the prediction of the IHS Markit, the memory chip sales of Samsung Electronics, which showed the share of 46 percent and 36 percent, respectively, in the DRAM and NAND flash markets in the fourth quarter last year, will reach US$42.8 billion (48.22 trillion) this year. SK Hynix will also see its sales stand at US$19.1 billion (21.52 trillion won).

Meanwhile, the IHS Markit said that the market situation can change depending on which company takes over Toshiba, the second largest NAND flash chip producer. When conventional companies, such as SK Hynix, Micron and Western Digital, acquires Toshiba, they will not instantly increase the supply in order to stabilize the market. On the other hand, when Chinese or Taiwanese companies acquires Toshiba, they will make an aggressive investment with a huge capital and oversupply chips to the market. Coon said, “Apple is mentioned as a potential buyer but the chances are low. Instead, it will be a three-way race among Micron, SK Hynix and Western Digital. SK Hynix is financially sound, while Micron and Western Digital have experience in partnering with Japanese companies. All three companies have the pros and cons so it is hard to say which has a greater chance of acquisition.”

By: DocMemory
Copyright © 2023 CST, Inc. All Rights Reserved