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REPEAT-Shakeout opportunities for Asia chipmakers
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Monday, June 14, 1999
Seoul,. Asia's giant memory chip makers will likely survive the shakeout now under way and could increase their dominance in the world market, regional analysts forecast.
They said three of the top makers would probably succeed in the consolidation, sparked by sliding prices since 1996, but others could fail to remain on the frontline.
"Maybe the number of DRAM makers will shrink to four or five companies globally, such as Samsung Electronics, Micron Technology, NEC and Toshiba, " said Takashi Mimura, an analyst at Societe General in Tokyo.
South Korea's Samsung Electronics Co <05930.KS>, Hyundai Electronics Industries Co <00660.KS> and Japan's NEC Corp <6701.T> are the region's biggest global suppliers of dynamic random-access memories or DRAMs.
The three took 41 percent of the world market in 1998, according to data from Dataquest, and U.S. Micron Technology Inc was the biggest non-Asian maker with an 11.7 percent share.
Analysts said the market share of Asia's top three makers was expected to rise by about 10 percentage points after the industry-wide consolidation winds up.
"Samsung's future is bright both for the short and long term," said Jon Chong-hwa, an analyst at KEB Salomon Smith Barney Securities in Seoul. Samsung Electronics Co. is the world's largest memory chipmaker.
Including the three, all Asian makers sold $12.04 billion worth of DRAMs globally in 1998, accounting for 78.5 percent of the world total of $15.35 billion, Dataquest data showed.
Analysts said the key for survival was the ability to reduce production costs, steady cash flows to lead the industry's technological progress, a sound product structure and a clean balance sheet.
They forecast that the shakeout would continue for the next couple of years but recovery in the world semiconductor market could slow the pace.
The U.S. Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) sees world semiconductor sales jumping 12 percent this year to $140.8 billion, reaffirming Dataquest's earlier prediction of $153 billion in global semiconductor sales.
Both agencies said strong sales of personal computers, consumer electronics and communications equipment would lead the recovery and the SIA said DRAM sales would rise by 25 percent.
The recovery might tempt some loss-making firms to remain in the market, but the cyclical nature of the industry would continue.
"A key assumption to the forecast is a DRAM shortage starting in late 2000...after that, the DRAM cycle of oversupply will repeat itself," said Ron Bohn, director of research for Dataquest's worldwide semiconductor group.
Analysts said there was a question mark over the future of South Korea's Hyundai, which could run into trouble if it failed to slash debt and turn to profit.
Under the South Korean government-led industry restructuring, Hyundai agreed to absorb LG Semicon Co <29890.KS> this year.
Hyundai will emerge as the world's largest DRAM maker in capacity but analysts said huge debt-servicing costs and continued high production costs could threaten the company's future.
"We believe Hyundai/LG cannot make up the gap with Samsung in many ways, " said Fumiaki Sato, an analyst at Deutsche Bank Group in Tokyo. "In the case of their merger, one plus one cannot become two, probably, it will be only 1.5."
As for Taiwan makers, most of whom specialise in the foundry business, analysts said they were unlikely to be successful if any attempted to go into the memory side.
And foundry specialists, such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp < 2330.TW> (TSMC) and United Microelectronics Corp <2303.TW>, were not expected to seriously try to expand into the DRAM business.
Instead, most Taiwan companies are seen strengthening the foundry business which is largely expected to remain bullish for the time being.
"TSMC is also bullish on capital expenditure for the future production lines equipping finer design rule. The company's technology is leading among Taiwanese makers, with good chip size shrinkage technology," Sato said
By: CST Staff
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