The average revenue per wafer among the Big 4 foundries peaked in 2014 at $1,149 and then slowly declined through last year.

TSMC’s average revenue per wafer in 2018 is forecast to be $1,382, which is 36% higher than GlobalFoundries’ $1,014.

UMC’s average revenue per wafer in 2018 is expected to be only $715, about half of the projected amount at TSMC this year.

Furthermore, TSMC is the only foundry among the Big 4 that is expected to generate higher revenue per wafer (9% more) in 2018 than in 2013.

In contrast, GlobalFoundries, UMC, and SMIC’s 2018 revenue per wafer averages are forecast to decline by 1%, 10%, and 16%, respectively, compared to 2013.

Although the average revenue per wafer of the Big 4 foundries is forecast to be $1,138 this year, the amount generated is highly dependent upon the minimum feature size of the IC processing technology.

In 2Q18, there was more than a 16x difference between the 0.5µ 200mm revenue per wafer ($370) and the ≤20nm 300mm revenue per wafer ($6,050).

Even when using revenue per square inch, the difference is dramatic ($7.41 for the 0.5µ technology versus $53.86 for the ≤20nm technology).

Since TSMC gets such a large percentage of its sales from ≤45nm production, its revenue per wafer is expected to increase by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2% from 2013 through 2018 as compared to a -2% CAGR for the total revenue per wafer average of GlobalFoundries, UMC, and SMIC during this same timeperiod.

There will probably be only three foundries able to offer high-volume leading-edge production over the next five years (i.e., TSMC, Samsung, and Intel). IC Insights believes these companies are likely to be fierce competitors among themselves—especially TSMC and Samsung—and as a result, pricing will likely be under pressure through 2022.

By: DocMemory
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