Thursday, January 3, 2019
The record high level of component lead times in the second half of 2018 is showing some signs of coming back down with a drop of 5% since Q3.
In Q3, a study by Future Electronics showed, among other unprecedented levels of shortage, LV MOSFETs at an astonishing 39-52 weeks lead-time from Infineon and Fairchild, at 36-52 weeks from Nexperia, at 38-42 weeks from ST and at 26-40 weeks from Diodes.
Bluetooth modules were on 22-26 weeks from Murata, 18-20 weeks from Microchip, 16-18 weeks from Panasonic and 12-16 weeks from ST.
Even SRAM was on 18-20 weeks from Renesas and PC DRAM on 4-6 weeks from Kingston and 4-8 weeks from Alliance.
“There’s massive and far-reaching under-investment in the industry” says Future Horizons CEO Malcolm Penn, (pictured), “no one makes speculative capacity investments any more; everyone waits until demand is clear; the lead-time for new capacity is (and always was) one year; QED a recipe for delinquency and disaster.”
There’s also talk that the Trump tariffs and threat of giga tariffs are pushing people to over-order to avoid price hikes.
Reputed low-ish distributor inventory may also contribute to moves to replenish stocks and keeping lead-times high.
So, despite weakening end demand, there are several reasons why a decline in lead-times may not be significant or soon.
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