Due to supply chain constraints, ASML has increased fast shipments to its customers and revised its sales growth forecast, from 20% to 10%, for fiscal year 2022.

ASML is the only manufacturer of critical EUV lithography machines, and demand has surged amid the ongoing chip shortage. “Demand is still significantly higher than what we can make,” ASML CEO Peter Wennink said after the company announced its quarterly results today (July 20). “We don’t see any demand reduction.”

For the second quarter of 2022, the Veldhoven, Netherlands–based company reported net sales of €5.4 billion, slightly ahead of its guidance, and achieved record net bookings of €8.5 billion, including €5.4 billion from 0.33 NA and 0.55 NA EUV systems, as well as strong deep ultraviolet (DUV) systems bookings.

The gross margin also came in at 49%, at the lower end of its guidance.

“It was a solid quarter,” said Wennink in a video interview posted on the company’s website. “However, it was not without challenges, mainly because of supply chain challenges and parts not coming in on time.”

For the third quarter of 2022, ASML expects net sales of between €5.1 billion and €5.4 billion, a gross margin of between 49% and 50% and approximately €1.4 billion of installed base management.

For the full year 2022, sales growth is expected to be about 10%, down from an earlier estimate of 20%.

Short- to long-term vision

ASML makes a clear distinction between short-term and long-term variability.

In the near term, Wennink said he is seeing “very mixed messages” from the customer base. While there is a slowdown in PCs and smartphones, the demand in the high-performance computing and automotive markets is “very strong.”

In the longer term, ASML identifies key growth factors. Semiconductors will indeed become essential in the automotive and renewable energy sectors, as well as in industries transitioning to a digital and greener future. Referring to “secular trends,” said Wennink, “it is obvious that big societal challenges need big solutions, and semiconductors go to the heart of those. The semiconductor industry will grow, and lithography intensity will grow.”

2022

Supply chain constraints accelerated in the second quarter and are likely to persist until the end of the year, said Wennink.

ASML said it will increase the number of fast shipments throughout the year to supply its customers with the necessary capacity expansions. “Fast shipment is a way to reduce the cycle time by cutting or not doing certain tests in our factory, which could lead to up to one month of cycle-time reduction,” said Wennink. “[It’s] very important when the customers are waiting for those machines.”

ASML will then have more deferred revenue recognition than anticipated.

“We said a quarter ago that the impact of these revenue-recognition delays was going to be about €1 billion for this year. Now, we think it is going to be €2.8 billion. Those delays translate into our 2022 sales number, so we currently think sales will grow at about 10%, to around €20.5 billion for 2022.”

The annual growth forecast announced in the first quarter was 20%, to about €22.3 billion.

2023

If 2023 is marked by “a moderate recession,” Wennink said, “the impact will be limited.”

He specified, “There is no denying that there are concerns, namely inflationary and recessionary concerns. As it relates to ASML, we have supply chain constraints that lead to fast shipment and deferred revenue recognition.” Looking at its order backlog and customer demand for 2022 and 2023, however, he is confident that ASML “can withstand any moderate recession.”

“If we see the supply chain constraints going away by the end of the year, or in the first part of 2023, we will definitely need over 60 EUV systems and over 375 DUV systems, […] because our customers tell us, so it’s going to be a good and healthy year.”

Beyond 2023

Wennink expects demand to continue beyond 2023 and confirms ASML’s long-term plans.

At its Investor Day in September 2021, ASML said the capacity ramp is expected to deliver an output capability of over 70 EUV 0.33 NA systems and about 375 DUV systems by 2025. During the fourth quarter of 2021, the Dutch group identified a need to further increase its output beyond this level so as to meet “the stronger and longer market demand and support an industry that is expected to at least double by 2030.” In today’s video interview, Wennink confirmed, “We said that by 2025, we want to have a capacity for EUV of 90 systems and for DUV of 600 systems, and beyond 2025, we want to build at least 20 high-NA systems. That is still very much intact, and we’re working with our suppliers to get it done.”

By: DocMemory
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