Driven largely by legislation and financial incentives, sales of EV passenger cars have increased rapidly in the last five years: Annual sales surpassed 10 million for the first time this year, and they are forecast to grow to more than 65 million by 2031. But the rollout of EV charging infrastructure in most countries is way behind the level required to serve the rapidly growing installed base of EVs.

According to SAR’s analysis of public EV charging infrastructure, at the end of this year, just seven of the 50 countries surveyed will account for almost 95% of the global installed base of EV charging stations.

Stations (stalls) vs. connectors

This year, the combination of China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan has by far the greatest share of the installed base. Many of China’s EV charging stations/stalls have only a single connector, owing to the nation’s regional standardization. So because many stations in other countries have multiple connectors, its overall share of connectors is less. No matter, China still has the greatest number of connectors installed.

In Europe, the Netherlands, Germany, the United Kingdom, and France collectively account for close to 10% of remaining EV charging stations and connectors — whereas the United States and South Korea each account for less than 5%. (The below figure shows the rank and projected rank of the leading countries this year and 2030, highlighting the forecast strong growth in India and Japan, both of which are expected to gain substantial share by 2030.)

Volume isn’t everything!

While early rollout of EV charging stations at volume has helped prepare these countries for growing EV adoption, providing a sustainable charging infrastructure isn’t as simple as deploying the highest number of charging stations possible. Strategies differ by country and require blended approaches and understanding of three core elements:

Ratio of charging points to EVs

SAR maps the ratio of the installed base of passenger car EVs to the installed base of EV charging connectors in each country. (The below figure shows 10 of the leading countries, their ratios this year, and projections for 2030.) While countries with densely populated cities, such as China and India, are predicted to opt for a very close ratio of EVs to charge point connectors — partly due to grid capabilities, which limits the potential of fewer faster-charging stations — others are forecast to have much larger ratios. Some countries are predicted to experience a shortfall of infrastructure by 2030; others are expected to experience difficulty in deployments because of terrain and harsh environments.

Fast charging

Most dedicated residential charging points operate via AC power and output 3.6 kW, 7 kW, or 11 kW. While these devices also exist in public EV charging infrastructure, AC fast charging at 22 kW and DC fast charging, typically at outputs from 50–360 kW, are becoming more widely available.

Currently, few EVs can charge at speeds above 150 kW, though more models with these capabilities are arriving on the market.

Despite this, EV charging stations capable of delivering up to 360 kW are being deployed. Often, these can supply up to four EVs at once and dynamically adjust output based on the overall load.

Some countries have found the deployment of public EV fast-charging stations critical in enabling their EV ecosystem.

Norway is a great example: With almost 90% of new passenger car sales in 2022 attributed to EVs and a projected half-million EVs on its roads by the end of this year, it’s further down the electrification journey than most. Its ratio of charging points to EVs, however, is 1:22, estimated to grow to 1:25 in 2030.

So how does it cope? It’s certainly aided by the fact that more than 50% of homes in Norway are detached and suitable for home-charging points, meaning that a large proportion of EV owners don’t have to rely on public charging alone. However, almost three-quarters of Norway’s public EV charging stations can output 22 kW or more, and more than half can output 50 kW or more. At least one fast-charging station is installed on every main road, no more than 30 miles apart.

In 2030, SAR predicts that two-thirds of the installed base of public EV chargers globally will have a power rating of 22 kW or greater, and more than 40% of this will be accounted for by DC fast chargers rated at 50 kW or greater, as more countries (with a grid that can support the strategy) adopt the approach to higher proportions of DC fast-charging infrastructure.

Deployment

While planning the correct proportion of slow-charging and fast-charging infrastructure is important, it’s also critical that charging stations with relevant features are deployed in relevant places.

It doesn’t make sense to deploy charging stations with the highest power ratings in areas where an EV owner is likely to charge for longer periods of time — at, for example, an office parking bay. Likewise, a 3.6-kW slow-charger deployment at a forecourt/gas station where an EV driver wishes to stop for only 15 to 30 minutes also makes little sense.

Deployment types vary largely by country. The development of EV-only forecourts/hubs that act more like a traditional gas station for ICE vehicles is becoming more common and is forecast to drive growth in demand of EV charging stations with greater than 150-kW power ratings over the next five to 10 years.

SAR forecasts that 11.5 million additional EV charging stations will be deployed globally between 2022 and 2030. Many of these are accounted for by countries where rollout is only just beginning to scale. Whilst each country’s strategy varies, all can learn from the success and shortcomings of existing deployments and adapt accordingly. Other key features to be considered in country-level strategy include simultaneous vehicle-charging capabilities and dynamic load balancing, along with the correct variations of connector per country.

By: DocMemory
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