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DataQuest predicts slow start for tablet PC
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Thursday, November 7, 2002
Despite much hype in the last few years, tablet PCs are not expected to see a high rate of early adoption, with just 425,000 units projected for shipment in 2003, according to Gartner Dataquest. This would place tablet PCs as representing just 1.2 percent of worldwide notebook shipments.
"Tablet PCs will have a natural fit in many vertical applications that currently use pen-based tablets," said Ken Dulaney, VP and research area director for Dataquest, in a statement. "However, a lack of application support, clumsy hardware designs and a price premium will be barriers for most users."
Businesses within vertical markets will be the majority purchasers of tablet PCs, buying in lots of one to 10 for evaluation purposes. Dataquest also said consumers and business executives looking for the latest gadgets will be responsible for many early shipments.
"Initial interest could cause an early spike in purchasing that will eventually level out," said Leslie Fiering, VP for Dataquest, in a statement. "Outside of the vertical industries, only the bravest will implement tablet PCs widely toward the end of 2003."
The researcher said it expects a six- to nine-month evaluation period before any volume purchases are made, even within vertical industries. This slow adoption rate is disappointing news for the 20-plus PC hardware vendors who are expected to release tablet PCs within the next year.
Tablet PCs are devices to be used in conjunction with a host PC or network, providing portable access to the main PC. Dataquest analysts see it first and foremost as a software evolution that extends the Windows operating environment and Microsoft applications to support a variety of media types, like ink, voice and video and input methods, such as pen, speech, and onscreen keyboard.
"While it is true that hardware has to change to make the tablet PC ergonomically feasible to access the newest media type and ink, it is the strength of users’ desire to use the new software that will largely determine the extent and speed of the change of the hardware," Fiering said.
Given time, interest in tablet PCs will increase. Dataquest said that by 2007 it expects 35 percent of all notebooks sold to have screen digitizers with a convertible or separable keyboard design.
By: DocMemory
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