DRAMs, nonvolatile memories, and digital signal processors (DSPs) are hot and expected to grow by more than 20 percent in 2004 over 2003, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) on Wednesday (June 11).

Analog, discretes, embedded chips, microcontrollers, logic, and optoelectronics are warm and will show double-digit growth in 2004 over 2003, according to the SIA. But microprocessors for computers are cold, by coming in last in terms of the product categories for 2004, according to the San Jose-based trade group.

The SIA presented the growth figures for several product categories as part of its new IC forecast from 2003 to 2006 The total semiconductor market is expected to increase 10.1 percent to $154.9 billion in 2003. The SIA forecasts growth of 16.8 percent to $180.9 billion in 2004, 5.8 percent to $191.5 billion in 2005, and 7.0 percent to $204.9 billion in 2006 2006.

In terms of product categories, the slowest growing market is not too surprising: microprocessors. Amid a slowing PC market, microprocessors will increase 8.1 percent to $25.8 billion in 2003 and then are forecast to grow 11.1 percent to $28.6 billion in 2004, 7.0 percent to $30.7 billion in 2005, and 4.0 percent to $31.9 billion in 2006, according to the SIA.

What's hot? DRAMs. While DRAMs were once used almost entirely in computers, they are now found in a broad number of consumer and communication applications.

The DRAM market is expected to grow 2.9 percent to $15.7 billion in 2003 and 43 percent to $22.5 billion in 2004. In 2005, DRAMs are expected to decrease 26.8 percent to $16.4 billion. In 2006, this market will rebound 29.6 percent to $21.3 billion in sales.

Flash memories are also hot. In 2003, this market is expected to grow 25.0 percent to $9.7 billion, grow an additional 25.0 percent to $12.1 billion in 2004, and another 11.0 percent to $13.5 billion in 2005. In 2006, however, Flash is expected to decline 5.0 percent to $12.8 billion in sales due to the cyclical nature of this sector.

DSPs also remain a sizzling market. This business is forecast to rise 27.7 percent to $6.2 billion in 2003, 20.8 percent in 2004 to $7.5 billion, 21.0 percent to $9.1 billion in 2005, and 6.0 percent to $9.6 billion in 2006.

Other markets are also expected to show decent growth. Discrete components, which include power transistors and radio frequency (RF) solutions, are forecasted to grow 7.3 percent to $13.2 billion in 2003. Discretes are then forecast to grow 12.1 percent to $14.9 billion in 2004, 9.4 percent to $16.3 billion in 2005, and 3.3 percent to $16.8 billion in 2006.

The optoelectronics device market is expected to increase 22 percent to $8.3 billion in sales, grow 15.0 percent to $9.5 billion in 2004, 11.7 percent to $10.6 billion in 2005, and 5.6 percent to $11.2 billion in 2006.

Analog is expected to grow 7.9 percent to $25.8 billion in 2003, 14.0 percent to $29.4 billion in 2004, 13.5 percent to $33.4 billion in 2005, and 5.0 percent to $35.1 billion by 2006.

The global logic market, which includes standard logic, standard cell, field programmable logic devices (FPLD), and a broad variety of application-specific products, is expected to grow 9.6 percent to $34.2 billion, increase 12.6 percent in 2004 to $38.6 billion, 11.7 percent to $43.1 billion in 2005 and 5.0 percent to $45.2 billion in 2006.

The global microcontroller market, driven by consumer and automotive applications, will increase 9.9 percent to $10.3 billion in 2003, and then grow 14.0 percent to $11.7 billion in 2004, 3.2 percent to $12.1 billion in 2005, and 18.5 percent to $14.3 billion by 2006.

By: DocMemory
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