Stronger-than-expected Q2 results have led Gartner Inc. to raise its forecast for Q3 PC shipments slightly -- good news for the MPU, memory and general semiconductor markets, which await a PC upturn.

Still cautious in its outlook, the market research firm today forecasted worldwide PC shipments to reach 39.8 million units in the current quarter of 2003, a 9.6 percent increase over Q3 2002. Gartner further projects PC shipments to reach 161.3 million units in 2003, an 8.9 percent increase from 2002.

"A sustained PC market recovery requires a return to business IT spending, which, in turn, is dependant on a significant improvement in economic conditions," said George Shiffler, a Gartner principal analyst, in a statement. "Despite some recent encouraging signs, economists are still guarded in their outlook for the second half of the year, so the prospects for a significant business PC recovery by year end remain questionable."

Economists may be guarded, but some companies are not. In Intel's Q2 results, which hit the height of its expectations, the company noted good demand in its computing business, particularly related to Centrino. Overall, the company forecasted a Q3 revenue improvement of between $6.9 billion to $7.5 billion from Q2's $6.8 billion.

"Within the PC industry, the mobile segment will continue as one of the major drivers of growth," said Kiyomi Yamada, an industry analyst at Gartner, in a statement. "Notebook prices and performance improvements are expected to continue as whitebox notebooks become more widely available and Centrino products are priced to appeal to non-business markets."

Gartner further explained that with the anticipated replacement cycle slower than originally expected, selective replacements were evident in the first half of 2003, but a general cycle will not be evident until early 2004. Gartner believes users are replacing PCs on delayed schedules, as machines reach the end of usable life.

By: DocMemory
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