Bullish on Q3 results, Gartner Inc. today raised its estimates for Q4 PC shipments. However, the firm did not do so over exuberantly, and took caution with its guidance.

Worldwide PC shipments are expected to total 47.2 million units in the quarter, a 12.4 percent increase from the same period last year, according to Gartner data.
 
That would cap 2003's PC shipments off at about 164 million units, a 10.9 percent increase from 2002, up from the 8.3 percent projection in their September version.

"Third quarter results were stronger than had been expected, led largely by the home and small business markets," said Charles Smulders, a Gartner VP, in a statement. "We see the third quarter results as an encouraging sign, and consequently we have increased our forecast for the fourth quarter of 2003 as well as the year-end projections. But we remain cautious in our overall outlook."

Gartner further warned of four issues that may spoil future PC growth prospects.

Demand remains lackluster for large-corporate sales, with the exception of Europe, where the appreciation of the euro against the U.S. dollar has been driving growth through its impact on euro-denominated prices, the firm noted.

Second, despite showing strong Q3 growth, the U.S. home market could prove fragile in the coming quarters, especially because its recent growth may have been driven by temporary factors, such as recent tax rebates and lower tax withholdings.

In the U.S. retail market, Gartner believes that inventory levels in October were noticeably higher this year than last year.

And lastly, the firm noted the Japanese consumer market appears to have been heavily influenced by early new model introductions in advance of Japan's new PC recycling law, which became effective Oct. 1.

"A global economic recovery remains an essential ingredient for a strong PC market recovery," said George Shiffler, principal analyst for Gartner's computing platforms worldwide group, in a statement. "While U.S. recovery prospects appeared to have improved significantly in recent weeks, the outlook for the rest of the world continues to remain uncertain, with many countries intently looking to the United States to pull them out of the doldrums.

"Our forecast models continue to show strong potential for growth in the number of buyers upgrading over the next year, but levels of actual activity will be highly dependent on worldwide economic circumstances," Shiffler said.

By: DocMemory
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