Consistent gains in commercial PC demand have led IDC to raise its expectations for 2004 PC shipments to 176.5 million on growth of 14.2 percent, the firm reported today.

Commercial PC shipment growth of 17.2 percent in Q2 was the highest since mid 1999, and the fourth consecutive quarter above 13 percent, according to IDC. Although worldwide consumer growth met expectations in the quarter, growth is expected to slow from near 20 percent in the second half of 2003 to only 9 percent in the second half of 2004. Despite that, commercial growth has led IDC to increase projections for total 2004 shipment growth from a June estimate of 13.5 percent to a current projection of 14.2 percent.

But IDC warned of putting on rose-colored glasses and assuming the positive. The firm reported that Q2 growth accounted for 58 percent of the total change to 2004 shipment volumes with only 42 percent falling into the second half of the year. In addition, growth estimates for 2005 were lowered 0.2 percent to 10.5 percent and projections for growth in future years remain in single digits. There are also regional variations in consumer and commercial growth that are important to be aware of, IDC noted.

"The market needs to be careful in interpreting these results," said Loren Loverde, director of IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, in a statement. "Strong growth in Western Europe and [IDC's rest of the world group] played a significant role in boosting second quarter results, while growth in the United States missed forecasts and slipped into single-digits. Similarly, it's important to note that we've lowered growth expectations for the consumer and portable markets even though projections for overall growth have increased slightly in the short term."

High growth in recent quarters is partially the result of a depressed market in prior years, the firm noted. As the market recovery matures, year-on-year comparisons will become more difficult, and growth is expected to subside.

"The tempered forecast of the U.S. market is somewhat in contrast to higher growth elsewhere, particularly in Europe,” added Roger Kay, VP of client computing at IDC. "Overall market maturity in the United States and uncertainty in both political and economic spheres has led us to revise our forecast modestly downward."

By: DocMemory
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