2005 will not be a flat year, according to market research firm, iSuppli.

Bucking numbers from the Semiconductor Industry Association and other industry watchers, iSuppli told Electronic News that next year will see 9.6 percent global semiconductor sales growth. The strong increase contradicts other forecasts this week that call for an essentially flat 2005.

Its predictions, said Dale Ford, VP of market intelligence services for iSuppli, are based on a solid and diverse memory market.
 
"We think the memory markets are not going to fall off the cliff, like SIA is forecasting," Ford said. "Our expectation is that the major memory suppliers are not going to see the same price erosion in this cycle that we've seen in prior cycles. They will be able to manage their portfolios through utilization of their fabs as they are able trade off between DRAM, NAND flash, even other logic products."

In past cycles, memory players have had to run their fabs with DRAM, even if it meant putting the chips on shelves, in order to have the economies work for their businesses. That, the analyst noted, forced memory companies like Samsung, Infineon and Micron to accept lower prices, just to move product off shelves.

"Now what we see is the ability to have a more diverse portfolio running in a manufacturing facility for the memory products and non-memory products."

Other industries contributing to 2005's growth include wired communications, which is expected to have a 10 percent CAGR from 2003 through 2008, and the steady automotive segment, Ford added.

Meanwhile, SIA's numbers predict little to no growth in 2005, while WSTS predicted expects 1.2 percent growth on the industry slowdown.

ISuppli also reiterated its 2004 forecast for 25.5 percent growth. SIA and WATS are predicting 28.5 percent and 28 percent growth, respectively.

By: DocMemory
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