Friday, February 4, 2005
The IC industry faces a glut of 200-mm fab capacity, which could threaten the dynamics of the next semiconductor upturn, according to an analyst.
"Based on historic trends as well as our checks with industry contacts, 200-mm capacity is not likely to be taken off line with any degree of rapidity despite the rapid migration to 300-mm manufacturing," said Cristina Osmena, an analyst with investment banking firm Jefferies & Co. Inc. (New York).
"While this may benefit chipmakers able to establish volume 300-mm manufacturing capability ahead of their competition, for the industry as a whole, this will lead to excess 200-mm capacity," Osmena said in a report. "Epidemic overcapacity in 200-mm may threaten the robustness of the next upturn."
In total, Jefferies & Co. on Thursday (Feb. 3) said that aggregate capital spending budgets should increase 1 percent to $44 billion in 2005, up from its previous estimate of a decline of 2 percent.
"In recent weeks, capital spending increases for 2005 have been announced by Intel, Samsung, TSMC, AMD, Infineon, Hynix, and Chartered Semiconductor," Osmena said. "In addition, the Taiwanese DRAM manufacturers — Powerchip, ProMos, and Winbond — plan to spend more on capacity this year than last."
Most of the capital-spending announcements are targeted for new and costly 300-mm fabs, but 200-mm plants are still in the picture.
"Intel, in fact, continues to show 200-mm on its roadmap until 2009. For companies such as Texas Instruments, with a wide breadth of technology needs, 200-mm capacity will be used to manufacture chips that are not on the leading edge," she said.
"Most important to the argument against 200-mm obsolescence is that recently added 200-mm capacity is extendable down to 90-nm. Last year, 200-mm capacity was added by Micron, SMIC, TSMC, Chartered, ST Microelectronics, Toshiba and IBM, among others," she said. "While 300-mm 90-nm capacity should ultimately offer a better cost advantage and extendibility down to 65-nm and below, this 200-mm capacity may serve as overflow capacity once leading edge chip demand becomes robust enough to fill up 300-mm fabs."
By: DocMemory
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